8Sided Blog

the scene celebrates itself

Albums, Singles, and Setting Fan Expectations

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A reader emailed asking about albums vs. singles and whether it’s now an accepted strategy to release a single every couple of weeks. These singles could lead to an album (a collection of the singles) or maybe not. Perhaps in 2020, the reader posits, the steady stream of singles is the new album.

I often talk about branding as a shared expectation among fans. That’s important to keep in mind as I answer this question. The frequency, format, and timing of a release is part of the artist’s branding and plays a significant role in setting expectations.

If a single gets released every two weeks, then the act becomes a ‘singles’ band, probably lumped into the pop space. Any extended break in this routine creates disappointment. A frequent release schedule also requires constant engagement with fans. Without the month-long build-up of an album, the days before and after multiple singles need a repeating but unique promotional ebb and flow.

The frequent single is a by-product of social media — it exists to feed the newsfeed and keep the artist in the online spotlight. If the artist (or her team) isn’t on top of online engagement, then the creative effort of regularly releasing singles is wasted.

Albums also say something to an audience. While singles are an invitation to melody and hooks, albums promise distinctive instrumentation and production qualities. Of course, albums can have catchy choruses — and singles are allowed to blow us away with incredible production — but the format the artist relies upon implies a prejudice to the fan. One wouldn’t expect Radiohead to turn into a monthly singles-only band, but this branding wouldn’t be out of place for Taylor Swift.1This sentence seems outdated as I revisit it now in early 2021. The pandemic has turned Swift into quite an impressive album artist!

Albums are less exhaustive to promote. However, there should be a supernova of activity in the weeks leading up to the release date and the following period. Album strategies welcome preparation, a steady build in hype, and extended reminders of the project post-release.

The artist often takes a break from heavy promotion while in-between albums. Consistently released singles, on the other hand, are here and gone, but the artist remains focused and in the spotlight.

Albums can have a defined press strategy. Prominent press outlets — online and print — are biased toward albums. An artist promoting an album or on tour because of an album is more likely to get featured. Singles artists should concentrate on premieres with influential blogs. A good relationship with a blog or outlet for regular premiere appearances can break a singles artist.

As for outsourcing PR, an album artist can hire a publicist per project for a few months at a time. A singles artist, on the other hand, would hire a publicist on a retainer to work each release and the artist’s profile in general.

As you can see, your release format signals the type of artist you are. This decision helps target a fanbase, influences the music, and determines the strategy. That said, the beauty of digital formats is that they don’t have firm boundaries. You’re free to play with expectations. For example, you can release surprise singles with experimental ‘b-sides.’ Or an occasional series of singles eventually collected on a forthcoming album — except the album versions are entirely different. And EPs can be a lot of fun, too. EPs allow more frequency than albums but retain the accepted qualities of a long-player. Then there are cassettes. We’ll be talking about cassettes on the blog later.

These choices, including the bending of expectations, transmit branding messages to your fans. Thus, the album isn’t dead, nor is the bi-weekly single the way of the future. Look closely at who you are as an artist and the type of fans you aim to attract. The nature of your next release resides in that reflection.

🔗 previously → The Album, If You Want It

Taking Back Our Fuel

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It’s necessary to imagine utopias and strive to reach them. Previously I wrote about the musical expression of a world I’d like to try and accomplishing change by aiming for a shared paradise. Dreaming big is essential to creating something better. Even dystopian movies and stories are driven by a character’s tenacious hope — Deckard imagined a better life was possible if he ran away with Rachael, after all.

It’s not fun learning about the commodification of our attention, but I enjoy it when Jaron Lanier talks about this. You see, he accompanies his critique with ambitious and hopeful solutions. Utopian solutions.

The unrestricted mining of our lifestyles and personalities as vendible data is serious. And many believe there’s no way to put that genie back in the bottle — that it’s an inevitable PK-Dickian future. But Jaron proposes a new model that’s lofty, aspirational, and possibly ridiculous. But putting it out there — having the conversation — bends us closer to a world where we want to live. Watch the video, and let’s have a conversation.

So look, here’s the thing. This whole shadow economy that runs our world now and concentrates all the wealth and reduces your future would not be possible without the data that’s coming from you and your friends. You are the fuel for it. […]

When you realize that data is the new oil, when you realize that this thing being taken from you that you don’t think about is the future economic value — is your future economic value {and} power — all of the sudden, I hope you can see you are giving away everything in exchange for almost nothing.

We need to affirmatively, positively invent a different system that doesn’t screw everybody up in the first place. And, you know what? I think we have a solution. I think we have charted a way out of this mess. And I really can’t wait to tell you about it.

Listening to Jaron speak is fun despite some dour subjects. He’s engaging and lucid in his arguments, even if I don’t agree with all of them. Listen to this conversation with Ezra Klein on the subjects of social media and how to change the internet.

#Worktones: Middle Eastern Experimentation, Kalbata ft. Tigris, Jason Lytle

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Let’s dip into some music that I’m listening to while toiling away in my cosey home office. This is the latest in an ongoing blog concern that I’m calling #Worktones.

As stated in the label’s mission statement, Unexplained Sounds Group aims to ‘investigate the experimental worldwide music scene.’ This investigation includes a series of smart compilations highlighting different countries and territories — places that don’t immediately spring to mind when one thinks of ‘experimental music.’ Evidently, it’s time for that misconception to change as these releases — which include discoveries in Africa, the Balkans, and Lebanon — are uniformly exceptional. The latest is an Anthology of Contemporary Music from Middle East, a stunning collection of 16 artists hailing from countries like Egypt, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iran, Israel, Iraq, and Palestine. This is Venn diagram music, connecting a circle of tradition with one of bold exploration. The tunes wander from ambiance to hypnotic drones to heady collages, combining into a fascinating if sometimes divergent whole. For starters, check out Nilüfer Ormanli’s “Art of Dying,” one of the few tracks with a vocal, though it quickly gives way to a synthesized mantra.

Lingering in the same geographic zone, I discovered the new album by electronic producer Kalbata on the terrific Fortuna Records. Past releases I’ve sampled from Kalbata dip sonic toes in both techno and Balearic styles, revealing an eclectic ‘don’t pin me down’ attitude. This eclecticism is stretched further with Vanrock, a collaboration with Israeli ‘psychedelic afro-pop band’ Tigris. These upbeat jams deliver an exotic and rhythmic flair — sweet percussion, jazzy analog synth riffage, and low-tuned guitars over Kalbata’s electronic foundations. The fusion is fast-and-furious with the opening salvos of “Safu” and “Vanrock,” but the possibilities of this collaboration really come together with the techno-enhanced “Satan Speaks!” At six tracks, this is one of those rare releases that leaves you wanting a lot more. Hopefully, it’s not the last union of these two acts.

Jason Lytle was/is a member of Grandaddy (this song has always been a favorite), and he seems to be aiming for my heart with his latest solo effort. I mean, an album made with nothing but a Roland Juno synth (sounds like a 106 to me) and a guitar is bound to win me over. This is the world of Lytle’s NYLONANDJUNO, a gentle set of tunes created for an Arthur King Presents art installation. The instrumentation constraint yields loveliness, especially on the first track, “Hitch Your Wagon To A Falling Star.” It does sound like a star falling from the sky — the Juno providing the inky night and the echoed guitar representing slow-motion fireworks. It’s beautiful. The climate is subdued throughout, with the synthesizer and guitar trading the foreground on different tracks. Once again, I’m made to regret selling my Junos. (h/t danielfuzztone)

A DJ’s Spin on Music Recognition Tech

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It’s no secret that a popular topic on this blog is audio recognition technology as a means to determine royalty payments from public establishments. I wrote about it yesterday. And I wrote about it previously. And previously.

PRS is testing music recognition technology in bars and nightclubs in the United Kingdom. According to Synchtank’s blog, there’s been an unexpected roadblock:

[AEFM’s Greg Marshall] adds that they are speaking to DJ agents to ensure they are getting on board with the moves by clubs and bodies like PRS, specifically addressing the non-record clause some DJs have in their contracts (to ensure their sets are not bootlegged or what they are playing is listed online). […] “We are just starting the process of talking with the bigger agents to see if they can amend their clause so it has an exception for music recognition technology,” explains Marshall.

I could see privacy (eavesdropping) concerns as a complaint against constant monitoring. But we are now allowing smart speakers/listeners in our homes so ¯_(ツ)_/¯. And I imagine the venue’s sound system is directly fed into the monitors, and not a literal microphone hanging out in the club.

I doubt DJs are worried about PRS recordings their sets or that monitoring reveals all their super-secret hottie tracks. The problem is a clause traditionally appearing in most DJs’ contracts that prevents recordings from happening for those reasons. The venues, understandably, want to adhere to the artist contract.

Is audio monitoring technically a recording? Regardless, this is a wild hiccup in the effort to use music recognition tech to determine accurate venue performance royalty distribution. DJs — add an exception in your contracts!

🔗→ Electronic Money: Dance Music and the Protracted Pursuit of Payment

Foretelling a Future of Artist Autonomy

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In a guest column for Billboard, VC friend and SXSW 2019 roomie Brian Penick has some illuminating thoughts about the future of music tech. He’s bullish on the growth of the music industry and points out several ‘key indicators’ that have him excited.

His first indicator is how artificial intelligence will redefine how we approach the creative process:

Imagine, without any prior training, creating a song via AI software with a single click. Now imagine leveraging that song to create a worldwide audience or, even better, a YouTube star pushing that song out to their already-established following.

I’ve spoken to Brian about this, and I believe we agree that, rather than threatening musicians’ livelihoods, AI music — as described in the above quote — creates promotion paths for a personality-driven celebrity outside of the traditional music economy. Your feelings on this probably are in line with your general outlook on celebrity culture, but the activity is nothing new. ‘Stars’ and brands (California Raisins, anyone?) have been promoting themselves with manufactured music projects for ages. And yet culturally meaningful bands and musicians continue to make an impact.

What’s even more impressive is AI as a tool for emerging musicians to exploit. Consider the technology’s application as a fan-interactive tool (different versions for different sets of fans), a creative assistant pushing the artist out of her comfort zone, or a tool that is itself manipulated and pushed to its limits. The ‘recording studio as instrument’ innovation revealed new subsets and styles of genre. In the hands of skilled producers and artists, AI will do the same. Musicians — or those purporting to be — who use AI merely as a crutch will be identified and called out, much like DJs who use ghostwriting teams today.

Crystal Ball Into The Future by Garidy Sanders on Unsplash

Brian’s next indicator is blockchain as a tool to tighten and standardize metadata, and delves into how this affects the tricky calculation of venue royalty:

A 2016 study conducted by my former music recognition company, Soundstr, surveyed almost 3,000 songs in 12 businesses over 2 weeks and found that more than 80% of the music played in public establishments such as bars, night clubs and coffee shops was not properly accounted for. On a national scale, this leaves hundreds of millions of dollars or more on the table for songwriters and publishers, all because of a lack of metadata and tracking methods.

The tracking methods are more important here as metadata can sit within an audio recognition platform like Soundstr or Shazam. PRS and GEMA are currently experimenting with song tracking in venues (something I’ll write more about in the next couple of days). But PRS and GEMA are the only interested parties in their respective territories, those being the United Kingdom and Germany. In the US we’ve got ASCAP, BMI, SESAC, and GMR — four performance collection societies that don’t necessarily see eye-to-eye.

Proper venue tracking requires the installation of a passive microphone to do audio recognition. Will US venues have four separate receivers installed, one for each PRO? Will the four agree on one company to handle this and trust that the company won’t reveal tracking info to competitors? Will blockchain somehow make that last question moot?

As I wrote about previously, accurate tracking of song performance in public establishments is new and essential. This type of monitoring hasn’t been a possibility until recent technological developments. I agree it’s a significant growth area in music publishing. But the fractured nature of the US PRO system will require a complementary solution based on appliance and accord, not technology.

The last three indicators that Brian lists go hand-in-hand: innovations in direct-to-consumer delivery, artist brand empowerment, and on-brand investment as part of artist identity. These factors create a more independent artist as income reliance shifts away from third-party platforms. There’s also an increased measure of control. The artist develops and strengthens a brand identity that encourages fans to interact and support via the artist’s hub of engagement. This shift diminishes the necessity of social media platforms for fan outreach.

Utilizing a coherent brand to inspire investment opportunities is also a novel idea:

The real opportunity comes when celebrities realize that, while single or minimal recurring payouts from sponsorships, endorsements or licensing deals are good in some scenarios, the bigger returns come from investing. What better to invest in than products and services you associate and market with your brand?

Our age is entrepreneurial. Artists not only participate and (hopefully) make wise decisions with their earnings but these investments potentially tighten relationships with fans. Brian’s example of Beyoncé’s investment in the vegan lifestyle is an instructive illustration.

That reminds me of this brilliant New Yorker profile of Iggy Pop. Pop is undeniably an artist who does what he wants, an epitome of ‘independent.’1In attitude, vision, and identity, if not label affiliation. I wondered how he maintained his autonomy, and then I read this part of the article:

“The phone rings; I get offered work. And, you know, there’s always my Apple stock,” [Iggy Pop] said, and laughed. “I have taken pains to diversify outside of the music industry.”

This example has a different angle than Brian’s observation. But Pop would not have mentioned Apple if it didn’t fit his identity. More importantly, it reveals a savvy road to independence. And that’s ultimately what these five key indicators foretell — a future of autonomy for the artists who want it.

🔗→ Five Music Tech Investment Areas You Need to Know
🔗→ The Survival of Iggy Pop

Energy Fools the Magician

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I ran across this delightful short film from 2008 promoting the Brian Eno/David Byrne collaboration Everything That Happens Will Happen Today:

From the video, a good quote from Byrne:

Adding little bits or changing your expectations is what keeps music really interesting. Because when you listen to music you can generally tell what’s coming, but then when you get surprised by what actually does come then — if it’s not too surprising — it’s kind of pleasurable.

I appreciate the caveat “not too surprising!” But, yes, unexpected elements are often responsible for pushing a song into the ‘special’ zone. These elements can be lyrical, a change of chords or dynamics, unannounced instrumentation, or anything else that comes to mind. And they don’t have to be in-your-face — subtlety is powerful.

The bass line in The Feelies’ “Slow Down” comes to mind. After playing one note for 2:19 of the song the bass unexpectedly switches to a second note. On paper, this seems insignificant, but in the context of the song, it’s a special moment. I get those song tingles everything I hear it — one of my favorite musical subtleties.

You can see Brian Eno reacting to the unexpected elements placed within Everything That Happens Will Happen Today. Check him out at 6:05. It’s fun and reassuring to see Eno get excited about the music he’s worked on, especially after all these years. He seems self-aware of his enthusiasm a few seconds later, pulling back a bit.

And then check out Eno at 6:50. What a riot. I asked Twitter to make a GIF for me, and David Wahl came through with this piece of magic:

https://twitter.com/zoomar/status/1173945954724007937

One last note (and timestamp) on this video. If the amount of clutter in your home studio has you feeling down check out (what I assume is) David Byrne’s workspace at 4:23. The ‘80s Trimline telephone is a nice touch.

What Am I Doing Now? (September 2019 Recap)

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Sunrise on Lake Holden

It’s been an eventful summer. First of all, I got married. I’ve been with Caroline for 15 years, so it doesn’t seem like that big of a deal but, okay, it’s a big deal. But we did the courthouse rather than any sort of ceremony. And then we threw a party for 20 of our closest friends and family and surprised them with the news. That was fun.

I’m asked, “does it feel different now that you’re married?” and I say, “yes, it does.”

“Really? What’s changed?”

“Now, everyone asks if things feel different.”

I’ve also moved away from consulting though I’m still open to help out artists and projects that inspire me. I’m updating my ‘About Me’ page to help explain this. I’ve decided that I can be more helpful through this blog, so I’m redirecting my focus here. The goal will be 3-5 pieces posted a week, eventually increasing the frequency to daily. I’m also plotting the long-promised newsletter. Cool things are afoot.

My friend Craig Snyder has come on board with 8DSync to help expand the roster. Craig’s knowledge of the industry is vast, and he’s already helped us make huge gains. Through Craig, we’ve added John Brodeur (check out Bird Streets, his latest project) and Swampmeat Family Band to our publishing posse. And I also brought on the full catalog of Scotland’s The Little Kicks, a terrific band I’ve known for a while. All three of these acts will have new albums at the beginning of 2020, and I’ll drop an exciting announcement related to all of this soon.

The 8D Industries label took the summer off but is revving up for the end of the year. More Ghost Than Man follows up last year’s release with So Soon The Dark. This mini-album is a soundtrack to a wild sci-fi short film which MGTM’s Terry Grant wrote, directed, starred in, did set design, voice-overs … okay, he did everything. It’s ambitious, and the film is crazy. And crazy good. Expect all of that to appear right before Halloween. And in early 2020 we’re expecting new music from Monta At Odds, San Mateo, and (hopefully) Q-Burns Abstract Message.

Last week I returned from Americanafest in Nashville. Technically, I didn’t go to the conference, but that didn’t stop me from meeting some wonderful people who were also in town. And it’s always a joy to spend some time in Nashville. In October, I’ll be in New York City for a couple of days of MondoNYC. Reach out if you’ll be there.

Daniel Johnston died. I love to root for underdogs, and he was a champion underdog. I briefly wrote about him last January. Please read some more articles about him here.

I forgot something, I know it. But I plan to shorten the time between these /now updates, so I’ll get to it next time. Surely.

Quick recommendations:

When Small Podcasts Want Big Music

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Vintage Microphone

Billboard:

For about a year, music-business sources say, rights holders have been monitoring podcasts more aggressively for unlicensed content. “We realized we were undervaluing the podcast market,” says one source, “and started proactively approaching people who had been using music without proper licenses.” […]

Podcasters who use music say their business is evolving from an anything-goes atmosphere reminiscent of early hip-hop sampling or online radio into an industry that depends on licensing — one, some say, in which only big companies will be able to afford the resulting fees.

I like the comparison with the early days of sampling and online radio. Podcasts have legally existed under-the-radar for over a decade, inviting the ‘wild west’ cliche when it comes to music licensing. The media attention given to Spotify’s acquisitions and start-ups like Luminary is a cause for monied interests to sit up and notice. Though most podcasts continue to live in the underground, the industry is no longer an underground industry.

Those ‘underground’ podcasts — 94% of podcasts supposedly have less than 5000 downloads an episode1A statistic that I heard repeatedly at Podcast Movement 2019 but I can’t find an online source to back it up. — have little separation from the Mark Marons and the Conan O’Briens. We judge and hype-up the industry according to its successes and highest valuation. So there’s not much wiggle room for a podcast in the 94-percentile to license a well-known piece of music at an appropriately adjusted fee. And to be fair, the rights-holders for, say, “Bohemian Rhapsody” can’t maintain the infrastructure to field thousands of small-paying requests.

Another problem is the archival nature of podcasts. Licenses are more expensive the longer they are active, so licenses with set terms — such as a one-year license — are a way to cut costs. Perpetuity is ideal, and is standard in film and television licensing, but can be out-of-range for podcast budgets. The Billboard article notes that “an annual track license generally costs between $500 and $2,000 for the master recording, plus the same amount for publishing … and must be renewed for a podcast to remain online.” A podcaster in this arrangement would pay this fee annually or have no choice but to delete the archive.

Here’s Music Ally’s take:

Now imagine the admin (let alone the mounting costs) for a podcast that puts out shows on a weekly or even daily basis. […] That’s not an argument for rightsholders not to be compensated for use of music in shows that can reach wide audiences, but the annual-renewal model seems fraught with challenges: we’ve seen some catalogue games ‘deleted’ by their developers because their music licences elapsed, and the games weren’t generating enough revenues any more to make renewals pay off. Could the same thing be happening for older podcasts?

An in-the-works solution is the forthcoming SoundExchange/SourceAudio collaboration that I wrote about previously. I’m sure annual renewals from podcasts will be required through this system as well but at a much lower cost2Supposedly this service will adjust the licensing fee based on the podcast’s estimated listener numbers. and the assistance of the platform in keeping track of it all.

A more immediate solution for the indie podcaster is to eschew “Bohemian Rhapsody” for independent music, focusing on labels and artists that are receptive and probably maintain all of their rights. Most small labels I know would be happy to have music featured in a podcast, or anywhere for that matter. Of course, that’s no help if you’re doing an episode about Queen. But maybe there’s already too much out there about Queen and not enough about emerging bands. Consider giving the airtime to an independent artist that would enjoy some podcast love.

He Provides the Soundtrack, We Make the Movie

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Be sure to check out this mini-documentary from Mixmag on the enigmatic Detroit producer Moodymann. I love his vision for his city, his ruminations on record shops, and how the staff at Archer Record Pressing warmly welcomes him. But mostly I love this, said to Gilles Peterson:

We went to the club to get down and dance. Everybody knew the DJ and we didn’t sit there and look at the DJ. He provided the music … we was more into the room. He provides the soundtrack, we make the movie. Well, nowadays everybody just stands there and looks at the DJ. It’s not like that’s Prince up there performing live. That’s the fucking DJ.

I got into DJ’ing via punk rock. That may seem like a non-obvious association, but hear me out. What I liked about underground punk rock was that the band wasn’t the star — the band was merely the facilitator, and everyone in the club was on an equal level. We were all part of the show, and together we made it memorable.

There was a similar feeling in underground dance music when I started DJ’ing. It was fine — even preferable — if the DJ was in the dark or behind a wall looking through a slit.1Many clubs in the early ’90s had ‘the slit.’ I admit that I hated this at first as it seemed like a (literal) wall between the DJ and the audience. But I’ve grown nostalgic for a time when the nature of the booth implied that the music was the true star of the show. We were there to come together, every person as necessary to this party as the next, rejoicing in the feeling of the music. That vibe, combined with the fiercely independent distribution and economy of underground dance music, was, to me, a new kind of punk rock.

I’m not shaking my fist at a cloud or feeling like things are worse or better than ‘back in my day.’ But it’s different. And I feel Moodymann’s frustration here. A couple of decades ago the role of DJs changed, elevated to stars as punk rock bands eventually were. And more and more it’s a DJ’s responsibility to be the movie. When that happens, who’s the soundtrack really for?

Related: On the Music Tectonics podcast The Verge’s Dani Deahl mentions, with trepidation, a new AI engine that selects, programs, and mixes music from a DJ’s predetermined selection. That way the DJ can focus on ‘performance’ rather than pesky details like queuing up and beat-matching songs. Canned performance is nothing new — the draw of many DJs and music artists is a cult-of-personality anyway — but the thought of such an app has me looking testily toward the sky.

Opening Up Content ID for Everyone

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Complete Music Update:

The eight Congress members who wrote to [Google CEO Sundar] Pachai last week acknowledged the benefits of Content ID, writing in their letter that “we appreciate Google’s efforts to combat the illegal distribution of content on YouTube”. However, they then said: “We are concerned that copyright holders with smaller catalogues of works cannot utilise” the copyright tools. […]

Expanding on this point, the Congress members’ letter goes on: “It has come to our attention that access to the Content ID system is only granted to companies that ‘own exclusive rights to a substantial body of original material that is frequently uploaded to the YouTube user community’. We are concerned that copyright holders with smaller catalogues of works cannot utilise Content ID, making it more difficult or impossible for them to effectively protect their copyright works from infringement and, ultimately, impacting their livelihoods”.

I’ve faced this issue as a music publisher. I’d rather directly submit my works to Content ID than through a third-party distributor, especially as many of our tracks are production music and not commercially released. I’ve reached out and received crickets.

YouTube’s requirement that an applicant’s catalog has to be already ‘frequently uploaded to the YouTube user community’ is a head-scratcher. Applicable music should be in the Content ID system in advance. If it takes multiple viral videos to get an acknowledgment from YouTube, then there’s money due to songwriters left on the table.

Prolific music producer Kevin MacLeod brings up another problem in his interview on 2 Girls 1 Podcast. MacLeod lets anyone use his music for free in videos as part of a Creative Commons license. As an independent music creator, he didn’t have direct access to Content ID. And using a third party for Content ID made no sense. Most of his music is not commercially available and, as anyone could use his music — no questions asked — there’s no money to be made on the distribution side.

The dilemma for MacLeod appeared when other people started claiming his music using Content ID through third-party distributors. That’s right — nefarious folks were seeing this unregistered music racking up views on YouTube and took advantage by registering it as their own.

Eventually, after repeated appeals to YouTube, MacLeod was able to work something out and get direct access to Content ID. But only after the nightmare scenario of video creators using his music, trusting there would be no issues, and then having their videos monetized or pulled by an unknown party.

I planned to set up a Creative Commons catalog for non-commercial user-generated content through my publishing company. But MacLeod’s story gives me cold feet. There’s no way I’m allowing our music used on YouTube without an assurance the rights won’t be questioned. Perhaps Google will heed Congress’s concerns and give rights-holders a choice — to use a third party for Content ID or go direct. That’s not so different than how SoundExchange operates. So, file this story under ‘fingers crossed.’